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Showing posts with label Ahead. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ahead. Show all posts

Tuesday, 16 November 2010

Will The British Pound Hold Above 1.60 Ahead of the U.K. Jobless Claims and BoE Minutes?

U.K. Jobless Claims Change

Survey: 6.0K

Prior: 5.3K

Fundamental Outlook

Jobless claims in the U.K. are expected to rise 6.0K in October after climbing 5.3K the in September. At the same time, the unemployment rate is forecasted to remain unchanged at 4.5 percent, while the ILO unemployment rate during the three months through September is expected to show no change from the month prior. As public sector jobs and private employment likely scaled back during the month of October, market participants should not rule out a rise in the unemployment component.

It is worth noting that the jobs report may be overlooked as the Bank of England minutes will be released alongside the labor force change. The minutes are expected to display another three way split amongst committee members. Andrew Sentance will likely call for a twenty five basis point rate hike in interest rates, while Adam Posen will push for an extra 50 billion pounds in asset purchases as the U.K. economy will face increased major hurdles in the upcoming months amid tough austerity measures. With the split among committee members likely to widen in the upcoming months, the British pound may witness increased volatility, and additional calls for a rate hike will provide GBP support. Join me to cover both events live!

Technical Outlook

GBPUSD Daily Chart

Will_The_British_Pound_Hold_Above_1.60_Ahead_of_the_BoE_Minutes_body_gbpusd1.png, Will The British Pound Hold Above 1.60 Ahead of the U.K. Jobless Claims and BoE Minutes? Charts Created Using Intellicharts – Prepared by Michael Wright

GBPUSD: The pair has extended its two day decline during the overnight trade, but downside risks remain capped by the key 1.60 barrier. Meanwhile, technical indicators continue to point to further upside potential. The parabolic SAR signaled for gains on November 1st, and has yet to reverse course, while the MACD continues to point to further advancement in the pair. Indeed, our speculative sentiment index stands at 1.54 and signals for additional losses; however, I do not rule out a change sentiment in the near term as many traders as of late bet on a U.S. dollar rally.

For More Technical Analysis Visit the DailyFX Technical Page.

Written by Michael Wright, Currency Analyst

To Receive Future Articles by Email, please contact me at mwright@fxcm.com

Michael Wright is the author of FX Headlines, Fundamentals vs. Technical’s, Intraday Trading, Weekly Spotlight, and Forex Trading Weekly Forecast


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